This was a nice bounce back week for the stem cell stocks. For a quite a bit of time, it appeared that the market had forgotten this entire sector, but things finally seemed to take a turn for the better. Nothing really earth shattering happened to cause the change in sentiment. As result, I can only conclude that it was the stem cell stocks' turn to catch up.
I recently decided to make a modification to this blog. Because many of the stem cell stocks have technically detached from the previous pivot point of 1/23/09, I've decided to now track each stock based on their weekly performance.
Top Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC.OB) = Up 67% for the week; If you remember, ACTC.OB was the worst performer last week. This week there was no major news, but as I figured, it bounced right back.
Worst Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) = Down -21% for the week; This tanked due to the company discontinuing a phase III Crohn's Disease trial.
- Stem Cell Innovations (SCLL.PK) = Down -20% for the week; Another one of those stocks significantly beaten in the stem cell sector the past 3 weeks on no news. It seems to be following a similar trend as ACTC.OB. I eventually think this trend should reverse.
Stem Cell Stocks Current Price and % Up or Down 3/23/09 - 3/27/09
Market Cap Over 50 Million
Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) = Current Price: $1.36; Up 9%
Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) = Current Price: $0.40; Up 14%
BioTime, Inc. (BTIM) = Current Price: $2.10; Up 2%
Celgene Corp (CELG) = Current Price: $46.04; Up 1%
Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) = Current Price: $1.80; Up 5%
Geron Corp (GERN) = Current Price: $4.89; Up 20%
ThermoGenesis (KOOL) = Current Price: $0.60; Up 18%
Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) = Current Price: $14.32; Down -21%
StemCell Inc. (STEM) = Current Price: $1.81; Up 21%
Market Cap Under 50 Million
Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC.OB) = Current Price: $0.125; Up 67%
Athersys Inc. (ATHX) = Current Price: $0.87; Up 10%
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI.OB) = Current Price: $0.09; Unchanged
Bioheart Inc. (BHRT) = Current Price: Current Price: $0.60; Up 2%
Cord Blood America Inc. (CBAI.OB) = Current Price: $0.0086; Up 23%
Cyro-Cell Intl (CCEL.OB) = Current Price: $0.62; Up 7%
Neuralstem (CUR) = Current Price: $1.06; Up 6%
International Stem Cell (ISCO.OB) = CurrentPrice: $0.50; Up 6%
LifeStem International (LSTM.OB) = Current Price: $0.0075; Up 15%
MultiCell Technologies (MCET.OB) = Current Price: $0.0135; Unchanged
Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI) = Current Price: $1.35; Up 16%
Stem Cell Therapy Intl (SCII.OB) = Current Price: $0.08; Unchanged
Stem Cell Innovations (SCLL.PK) = Current Price: $0.006; Down -20%
Possible Catalyst(s) for the Week:
- Again, be on the lookout for further legislative movement to support President Obama's executive order.
- More Mutual fund distribution of funds originally allocated for Genentech. It will take quite a while to redistribute these dollars throughout the biotech sector.
- M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity will be key. It could happen at any time.
Ending Thoughts:
My gut feeling tells me that the market will trade higher on Monday, but will slide lower the rest of the week. The quarter is coming to an end and after such thunderous gains, the market may be looking to take a breather. If this does take place, DOW 8000 becomes the new technical point of resistance. It's hard to determine where exactly this leaves the stem cell stocks, but be mindful that a pullback may occur.
Stem Cell Stocks 3/22/09: The Week That Was
As a whole, this was not a good week for the stem cell stocks. Most were down 5% - 10%. The smaller caps were hit particularly hard. It has been tough to find the stem cell stocks' place in this current market. Overall, the market is in rally mode, but these stocks just have not been a part of the run. Right now, all the large cap stocks that we track are below its price prior to our reference date of 1-23-09.
Top Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Athersys (ATHX) = Up 41% for the week; This stock rose after it reported its 2008 year end earnings. Losses narrowed, but investors seemed to be encouraged that the company is moving ahead with its adult stem cell therapy Multistem. After spiking after the announcement on 1-23-09, ATHX dropped precipitously for a month and a half. This was the first sign of a possible reversal.
Worst Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Advanced Cell Technology Inc. (ACTC.PK) = Down -40% for the week; There has been no news and the volume has been average. Although the drop has been substantial, there's not a lot of force behind it. Bargain hunters will probably scoop this up quickly next week.
Stem Cell Stocks Current Price and % Up or Down Since the First Rally on 1/23/09
Market Cap Over 50 Million
Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) = Current Price: $1.25; Down -13%
Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) = Current Price: $0.35; Down -32%
BioTime, Inc. (BTIM) = Current Price: $2.05; Down -2%
Celgene Corp (CELG) = Current Price: $45.52; Down -7%
Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) = Current Price: $1.72; Down -46%
Geron Corp (GERN) = Current Price: $4.08; Down -22%
ThermoGenesis (KOOL) = Current Price: $0.51; Down -6%
Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) = Current Price: $18.04; Down -4%
StemCell Inc. (STEM) = Current Price: $1.50; Down -30%
Market Cap Under 50 Million
Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC.PK) = Current Price: $0.075; Down -38%
Athersys Inc. (ATHX) = Current Price: $0.79; Up 16%
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI.OB) = Current Price: $0.0925; Down -8%
Bioheart Inc. (BHRT) = Current Price: Current Price: $0.59; Down -25%
Cord Blood America Inc. (CBAI.OB) = Current Price: $0.007; Up 84%
Cyro-Cell Intl (CCEL.OB) = Current Price: $0.58; Up 26%
Neuralstem (CUR) = Current Price: $1.00; Down -30%
International Stem Cell (ISCO.OB) = CurrentPrice: $0.47; Up 62%
LifeStem International (LSTM.OB) = Current Price: $0.0065; Up 67%
MultiCell Technologies (MCET.OB) = Current Price: $0.0135; Up 214%
Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI) = Current Price: $1.16; Up 82%
Stem Cell Therapy Intl (SCII.OB) = Current Price: $0.0925; Up 50%
Stem Cell Innovations (SCLL.PK) = Current Price: $0.0075; Up 36%
Possible Catalyst(s) for the Week:
- Again, be on the lookout for further legislative movement to support President Obama's executive order.
- Analysis upgrades are coming. These stocks are just getting too cheap.
Although the catalysts above could help cause the stem cell stocks to end their current slide, I don't think you'll see another huge move until one of the companies in the sector get's bought out or a hostile takeover is made public. Because stem cell stocks focus on research, very few if any are going to have earnings. When a stock doesn't have earnings, it is very difficult for the market to accurately assign it a value. Until M&A activity happens, don't expect any monster pops.
The main reason I do this blog and others, is so we can call make some money. You can also check out another blog I've started called "The Perfect Stock" at http://theperfectstock.blogspot.com/ . The site picks a stock covering all sectors that is perfectly setup both fundamentally and technically. Check it out when you get a chance.
Top Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Athersys (ATHX) = Up 41% for the week; This stock rose after it reported its 2008 year end earnings. Losses narrowed, but investors seemed to be encouraged that the company is moving ahead with its adult stem cell therapy Multistem. After spiking after the announcement on 1-23-09, ATHX dropped precipitously for a month and a half. This was the first sign of a possible reversal.
Worst Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Advanced Cell Technology Inc. (ACTC.PK) = Down -40% for the week; There has been no news and the volume has been average. Although the drop has been substantial, there's not a lot of force behind it. Bargain hunters will probably scoop this up quickly next week.
Stem Cell Stocks Current Price and % Up or Down Since the First Rally on 1/23/09
Market Cap Over 50 Million
Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) = Current Price: $1.25; Down -13%
Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) = Current Price: $0.35; Down -32%
BioTime, Inc. (BTIM) = Current Price: $2.05; Down -2%
Celgene Corp (CELG) = Current Price: $45.52; Down -7%
Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) = Current Price: $1.72; Down -46%
Geron Corp (GERN) = Current Price: $4.08; Down -22%
ThermoGenesis (KOOL) = Current Price: $0.51; Down -6%
Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) = Current Price: $18.04; Down -4%
StemCell Inc. (STEM) = Current Price: $1.50; Down -30%
Market Cap Under 50 Million
Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC.PK) = Current Price: $0.075; Down -38%
Athersys Inc. (ATHX) = Current Price: $0.79; Up 16%
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI.OB) = Current Price: $0.0925; Down -8%
Bioheart Inc. (BHRT) = Current Price: Current Price: $0.59; Down -25%
Cord Blood America Inc. (CBAI.OB) = Current Price: $0.007; Up 84%
Cyro-Cell Intl (CCEL.OB) = Current Price: $0.58; Up 26%
Neuralstem (CUR) = Current Price: $1.00; Down -30%
International Stem Cell (ISCO.OB) = CurrentPrice: $0.47; Up 62%
LifeStem International (LSTM.OB) = Current Price: $0.0065; Up 67%
MultiCell Technologies (MCET.OB) = Current Price: $0.0135; Up 214%
Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI) = Current Price: $1.16; Up 82%
Stem Cell Therapy Intl (SCII.OB) = Current Price: $0.0925; Up 50%
Stem Cell Innovations (SCLL.PK) = Current Price: $0.0075; Up 36%
Possible Catalyst(s) for the Week:
- Again, be on the lookout for further legislative movement to support President Obama's executive order.
- Analysis upgrades are coming. These stocks are just getting too cheap.
Although the catalysts above could help cause the stem cell stocks to end their current slide, I don't think you'll see another huge move until one of the companies in the sector get's bought out or a hostile takeover is made public. Because stem cell stocks focus on research, very few if any are going to have earnings. When a stock doesn't have earnings, it is very difficult for the market to accurately assign it a value. Until M&A activity happens, don't expect any monster pops.
The main reason I do this blog and others, is so we can call make some money. You can also check out another blog I've started called "The Perfect Stock" at http://theperfectstock.blogspot.com/ . The site picks a stock covering all sectors that is perfectly setup both fundamentally and technically. Check it out when you get a chance.
3-17-09 Will the Stem Cell Stocks Participate?
The stock market continues to press upward, but many people are wondering why the stem cell stocks haven't participated in the rally. I feel that it is just a matter of time. There are so many sectors in the market that have really been beaten up over the last 6 to 8 months. Right now, it is their time to shine. The "Financials" and "Auto Suppliers" are the hot sectors. These stocks were literally thrown away and left for dead. Now, it's an entirely different story. When you have multiple daily runs of 20% - 60%, stock traders and investors will gravitate to what's hot and ride the momentum. Citigroup is up around 150% in a little over a week. Auto supplier stocks like Hayes Lemmerz Intl (HAYZ) and Tenneco (TEN) are up 300% - 400% during the same time frame. Technically, the stem cell stocks have been one of the more successful sectors despite the accelerated downturn of the stock market. Every sector at some point has their day in the sun.
We will see what the rest of the week will hold, but maybe today, 3-17-09, was the start of the the stem cell rally. Most of the large cap stem cell stocks moved upward pretty hard today (STEM was up 16%). The smaller caps and penny stem cell stocks continued their slide, but history has shown that these stocks typically follow the large caps. At the beginning of a run, it is rare that they move simultaneously higher with no news. Keep a eye on the stem cell sector the rest of the week. The market looks poised to continue higher. Let's see if the stem cell stocks catch up.
We will see what the rest of the week will hold, but maybe today, 3-17-09, was the start of the the stem cell rally. Most of the large cap stem cell stocks moved upward pretty hard today (STEM was up 16%). The smaller caps and penny stem cell stocks continued their slide, but history has shown that these stocks typically follow the large caps. At the beginning of a run, it is rare that they move simultaneously higher with no news. Keep a eye on the stem cell sector the rest of the week. The market looks poised to continue higher. Let's see if the stem cell stocks catch up.
Stem Cell Stocks 3/14/09: The Week That Was
The stem cells stocks began the week with blaze, but ended rather anticlimactically with just a smolder. Most of the sector ended positive for the week, but most investors and/or stock traders were disappointed that gains from last Monday morning didn't hold.
Top Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI) = Up 44% for the week; This low floater is now getting a lift after the hangover from its secondary offering a little over a month ago.
Top Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI) = Up 44% for the week; This low floater is now getting a lift after the hangover from its secondary offering a little over a month ago.
- BioTime, Inc (BTIM) - Up 30% for the week; The market appears to understand that this is one of the few stem cell stocks that will directly benefit from Obama's executive order to unfreeze human embryonic stem cell federal funding. Click here for blog addressing this in more detail
Worst Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) = Down -19% for the week; This stock got a big pop from the Obama executive order as did many of the other stem cell stocks. However, it plummeted shortly after their secondary offering was announced. The dilution appears pretty significant (36% after all warrants are exercised) and the market punished them accordingly. The company desperately needed the money and is now near its all-time low share price. With all that being said, the company still has great technology and a solid future now that it has an infusion of capital. Looks to me like a great buying opportunity from here at any sign of a trend reversal.
Stock to Watch:
- International Stem Cell Corp (ISCO.OB) - Out of all the stem cell stocks, this one has by far the best looking chart and momentum. The month of February was just "noise" in what appears to be a steady upward trend. Also, volume is steadily increasing despite the rise in share price. This is always a good sign for stocks $0.25 - $1.00 per share. I think this stock is becoming a favorite because the company addresses one of the issues that is now at the forefront of Obama's executive order. Supposedly, human embryonic stem cells federal funding was initially suspended due to concerns over embryos being destroyed in the testing process. ISCO.OB was the first company to perfect a method of creating human stem cells from unfertilized eggs. Their unique human stem cells, called "parthenogenetic" stem cells, have ethical advantages since they do not require the use of fertilized embryos. The stock was consistently priced around $3/share during the first half of 2007 until it mysteriously dropped. With the current environment being so strong for stem cell stocks, it could have quite a run. See below for ISCO.OB's chart:
Stem Cell Stocks Current Price and % Up or Down Since the First Rally on 1/23/09
Market Cap Over 50 Million
Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) = Current Price: $1.33; Down -8%
Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) = Current Price: $0.40; Down -23%
BioTime, Inc. (BTIM) = Current Price: $2.21; Up 6%
Celgene Corp (CELG) = Current Price: $48.20; Down -2%
Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) = Current Price: $1.88; Down -41%
Geron Corp (GERN) = Current Price: $4.36; Down -16%
ThermoGenesis (KOOL) = Current Price: $0.46; Down -15%
Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) = Current Price: $18.13; Down -4%
StemCell Inc. (STEM) = Current Price: $1.65; Down -23%
Market Cap Under 50 Million
Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC.PK) = Current Price: $0.13; Up 4%
Athersys Inc. (ATHX) = Current Price: $0.56; Down -18%
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI.OB) = Current Price: $0.097; Down -3%
Bioheart Inc. (BHRT) = Current Price: Current Price: $.70; Down -11%
Cord Blood America Inc. (CBAI.OB) = Current Price: $0.009; Up 137%
Cyro-Cell Intl (CCEL.OB) = Current Price: $0.60; Up 30%
Neuralstem (CUR) = Current Price: $0.94; Down -34%
International Stem Cell (ISCO.OB) = CurrentPrice: $0.54; Up 86%
LifeStem International (LSTM.OB) = Current Price: $0.009; Up 131%
MultiCell Technologies (MCET.OB) = Current Price: $0.0107; Up 149%
Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI) = Current Price: $1.55; Up 144%
Stem Cell Therapy Intl (SCII.OB) = Current Price: $0.08; Up 60%
Stem Cell Innovations (SCLL.PK) = Current Price: $0.0095; Up 73%
Possible Catalyst for the Week:
- Be on the lookout for further legislative movement to support President Obama's executive order. It may not cause the stem cell stocks to explode like early last week, but it should keep the sector noteworthy and stock traders happy enough support future gains.
- The market appears to have changed its sentiment (at least temporarily). The fact that the S&P 500 bounced off the 660's and closed above 750 for the week is a very good sign from a technical standpoint. If this is a true bear market rally as many believe, there's possibly another 50 points still on the table until we have some distinctive profit taking. I see no reason why the stem cell stocks won't move with the rest of the market.
- As mentioned before, I expect to see more analyst upgrades since many of these stocks have now retraced and bottomed from their fast rise in late January.
- With the Roche/ Genentech Deal finally over, many experts feel that a lot of Biotech hedge fund money will be transferred to other Biotech names. This could bode well for larger cap stem cell stocks like Celgene (up 15% to 20% last week), StemCells Inc., and Geron Corp.
Embryonic Stem Cells: Which Stocks Directly Benefit from Obama's Decision?
The excitement of the executive order issued by President Obama allowing companies to receive federal funding for human embryonic stem cells research has brought a lot of new investor interest to the sector. All the stem cell stocks received a boost because the overall sentiment of the group became more positive. However, this post is to specifically address a question with these stocks that everyone seems to keep asking, "Which stem cell stocks directly benefit from this news?"
Early in the week, the answer to this question was not really all that important. To be honest, I don't think anybody cared as long as their stock kept going up. Now that some of the euphoria has died down, investors are more apt to gravitate to quality and relevancy as oppose to the "low floater". There are three stem cell stocks that I have found that directly benefit from federal funding opportunities:
Gern Corporation (GERN) - This stem cell stock received the go ahead for the first government-approved clinical trial testing human embryonic stem cells on people. Studies of this nature typically require multiple trials and can be very expensive to perform. Federal funding would soften the company's cash burn and lessen the need for partnerships and share holder dilution.
Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC.PK) - They have hundreds of patents and developed techniques to obtain embryonic stem cells while leaving the embryos functionally intact. Studies bolstering the significance of these techniques, which could act as the key cog in a potential scientific breakthrough, were requested to be funded by the federal government in 2007. However, they were denied simply due to a lack of political favor. Also, with this new funding available, new groups will be interested in doing research in the field. As a result of all the patents Advanced Cell Technology hold, they are nicely positioned for royalties.
BioTime, Inc (BTIM) - CEO, Dr. Michael West is one of the pioneers of the human stem cells industry. He was the founder of Geron Corp and also worked at Advanced Cell Technology. BioTime owns a subsidiary called Embryome Sciences, Inc. Part of their business involves marketing and selling new embryonic stem cell lines to universities and pharmaceutical companies. Fresh funding should supply potential customers of Embryome Sciences lots of cash to make this essential purchase.
Early in the week, the answer to this question was not really all that important. To be honest, I don't think anybody cared as long as their stock kept going up. Now that some of the euphoria has died down, investors are more apt to gravitate to quality and relevancy as oppose to the "low floater". There are three stem cell stocks that I have found that directly benefit from federal funding opportunities:
Gern Corporation (GERN) - This stem cell stock received the go ahead for the first government-approved clinical trial testing human embryonic stem cells on people. Studies of this nature typically require multiple trials and can be very expensive to perform. Federal funding would soften the company's cash burn and lessen the need for partnerships and share holder dilution.
Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC.PK) - They have hundreds of patents and developed techniques to obtain embryonic stem cells while leaving the embryos functionally intact. Studies bolstering the significance of these techniques, which could act as the key cog in a potential scientific breakthrough, were requested to be funded by the federal government in 2007. However, they were denied simply due to a lack of political favor. Also, with this new funding available, new groups will be interested in doing research in the field. As a result of all the patents Advanced Cell Technology hold, they are nicely positioned for royalties.
BioTime, Inc (BTIM) - CEO, Dr. Michael West is one of the pioneers of the human stem cells industry. He was the founder of Geron Corp and also worked at Advanced Cell Technology. BioTime owns a subsidiary called Embryome Sciences, Inc. Part of their business involves marketing and selling new embryonic stem cell lines to universities and pharmaceutical companies. Fresh funding should supply potential customers of Embryome Sciences lots of cash to make this essential purchase.
Stem Cell Company Stocks 3/7/09: Updated 3/9/09
What a wild day to say the least for the stem cell stocks! There were upwards of 175% gains during the first hour of trading (MCET.OB getting the honor of having the highest percentage intraday gain). Unfortunately, things tailed off quite a bit as soon as President Obama spoke about the executive order. It's was a classic "sell the news", which left many people disappointed if they didn't take profits. The overall stock market inching further down didn't help either. However, all is not yet lost.
This sell off may just be the ammunition that "big money" sitting on the sidelines needs. No professional would dare buy a stock the day of a 40% - 100% gap up at the open. This entire day was about short seller covering and retail stock buyers and sellers like you and me. I suspect that very few institutional buys have been initiated yet. The smart ones won't get in until there's a nice balance of these stocks falling far enough to have an appealing entry while at the same time technically maintaining upward momentum. It will be at this point when you'll start seeing multiple analyst upgrades. There's already been one today (see comments).
The next couple of days should tell a lot. The hope is that we get a maintainable, steady rise, but don't be discouraged if there's a gap up again tomorrow followed by some selling. The top picks continue to be GERN, ACTC.PK, and STEM for the long term.
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3-7-09
Prior to the close of Friday's market, nothing special happened again this week for the Stem Cell stocks. A few were flat but the majority remained down. However, after weeks of seemingly getting pounded, there finally appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Most names in the sector exploded 3/6/09 after hours in upwards of 80% on news that President Obama will sign an executive order to allow federal funding for human embryonic stem cell research. What's amazing is that these huge moves are taking place with the larger cap stem cell stocks. The unusual spike signifies that the sector has been heavily shorted after such an impressive run up ending the beginning of February. There will be some tremendous money making opportunities to begin the week so hopefully you've been holding tight or you've recently made some timely buys. Forget about trying to figure out which stocks deal directly with human embryonic stem cells. Every company in the sector will get lumped together (see the last stem cell and infrastructure rallies for proof). Let's take a look at some possible game plans Monday:
Game plan 1 - As far as the large cap stem cell stocks, there will probably be significant selling in Monday's pre-market and the first 30 minutes to an hour of trading. As a result, I'd be very surprised if a stock like ASTM actually opens with the 82% gain currently showing after hours. If you already have a position in the stock, you can either sell with the herd or hang tight and hope for a full day or multi-day run. If the market as a whole is in rally mode, it may be worth holding on. However, be careful because the market could be similar to last Friday's with a first hour suckers rally to start the session. If you decide to chase (although I wouldn't recommend it with the larger caps) I'd stick with GERN, STEM, ASTM, CYTX, and KOOL. Look to start a position after a probable MM shakeout around 10AM.
Game plan 2 - If the gains with the large cap stocks are as significant as the after hours forecast, the small caps should really explode. If you are looking to buy into the sector early Monday, the small caps may be the safest bet. Penny stock chasers will pump the likes of CBAI.OB, MCET.OB, ACTC.PK, etc. like there is no tomorrow. The sentiment of every penny stock forum and message board I've seen this weekend has been to "load the boat" with stem cell stocks. All of these stocks should do well and I'd load up first thing in the morning. Typically, it's better to buy penny stocks at 9:30AM because the gap ups are not as extreme due to the fact that there is very little pre-market activity to significantly drive up the price. I would particularly be on the lookout for stem cell stock low floaters MCET.OB, LSTM.OB (despite the reservations people have if it is really still a stem cell company) and PSTI purely based on recent history. The super run MCET.OB had a little over a month ago is still fresh in the minds of many. I'd expect expect close to a repeat performance.
Game plan 3 - Don't forget 2nd and 3rd day singular stock moves. If you see a particular stock is being left out in Monday's run for no reason, it might be a good idea to initiate a position. It's hard for every stock in a sector to go up significantly on the same day. There are simply too many "pile jumpers" in the stock trading world. PSTI was one the last big moving stocks after GERN's big announcement so keep your eyes open.
Game plan 4 - If you are into the buy and hold theory and want to invest long term, stick with the best of breed names like GERN and STEM. If you want the safest investment with the biggest potential to hit the jackpot, own ACTC.PK.
Top Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Stem Cell Innovations (SCLL.PK) = Up 20% for the week; There has been no news. So, based on the solid volume, it looks like the sellers have just dried up and there is slow steady accumulation.
Worst Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Geron Corp (GERN) = Down -14% for the week; It's obviously being shorted to no end. Shortsqueeze.com says that 22% of the float is being shorted. It's still a good company, but it's being dragged down with the rest of the market. However, the short squeeze will be explosive!
Stem Cell Stocks Current Price and % Up or Down Since the First Rally on 1/23/09
Market Cap Over 50 Million
Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) = Current Price: $1.20; Down -17%
Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) = Current Price: $0.33; Down -36%
BioTime, Inc. (BTIM) = Current Price: $1.70; Down -19%
Celgene Corp (CELG) = Current Price: $41.16; Down -16%
Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) = Current Price: $2.31; Down -28%
Geron Corp (GERN) = Current Price: $3.87; Down -26%
ThermoGenesis (KOOL) = Current Price: $0.40; Down -26%
Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) = Current Price: $18.01; Down -4%
StemCell Inc. (STEM) = Current Price: $1.38; Down -36%
Market Cap Under 50 Million
Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC.PK) = Current Price: $0.11; Down -8%
Athersys Inc. (ATHX) = Current Price: $0.58; Down -15%
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI.OB) = Current Price: $0.10; Down -5%
Bioheart Inc. (BHRT) = Current Price: Current Price: $1.00; Up 27%
Cord Blood America Inc. (CBAI.OB) = Current Price: $0.0089; Up 134%
Cyro-Cell Intl (CCEL.OB) = Current Price: $0.54; Up 17%
Neuralstem (CUR) = Current Price: $0.86; Down -40%
International Stem Cell (ISCO.OB) = CurrentPrice: $0.45; Up 55%
LifeStem International (LSTM.OB) = Current Price: $0.01; Up 156%
MultiCell Technologies (MCET.OB) = Current Price: $0.0099; Up 130%
Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI) = Current Price: $1.08; Up 70%
Stem Cell Therapy Intl (SCII.OB) = Current Price: $0.06; Up 20%
Stem Cell Innovations (SCLL.PK) = Current Price: $0.009; Up 64%
Possible Catalyst for the Week:
- It was announce just before the close of the market on Friday that President Obama will sign an executive order on Monday rolling back restrictions on federal funding of human embryonic stem cells research. GERN is up 40% and STEM is up 67% during Friday's after hours. This is a dead giveaway for a major short squeeze.
-5th Annual Stem Cell Research & Therapeutic Conference - runs March 9-10, 2009; http://www.gtcbio.com/conferenceDetails.aspx?id=145 ; A different stem cell conference last month got a lot of coverage from news and television outlets and the stocks in the sector responded strongly.
- Most people are expecting a bear market rally this coming week. We are very close to a key technical support level in the S&P. Also, there will be a lot of positive speculation leading up to a hearing on 3/12/09 regarding "Mark to Market" Accounting, which could help the financial sector. I'd suspect that many of the beaten down sectors particularly with strong fundamentals like the stem cells stocks will get a significant boost.
- Look for a series of analyst upgrades. They are always late to the party and are just looking to boost the value of their own investments. It could help the stem cell stocks though.
This sell off may just be the ammunition that "big money" sitting on the sidelines needs. No professional would dare buy a stock the day of a 40% - 100% gap up at the open. This entire day was about short seller covering and retail stock buyers and sellers like you and me. I suspect that very few institutional buys have been initiated yet. The smart ones won't get in until there's a nice balance of these stocks falling far enough to have an appealing entry while at the same time technically maintaining upward momentum. It will be at this point when you'll start seeing multiple analyst upgrades. There's already been one today (see comments).
The next couple of days should tell a lot. The hope is that we get a maintainable, steady rise, but don't be discouraged if there's a gap up again tomorrow followed by some selling. The top picks continue to be GERN, ACTC.PK, and STEM for the long term.
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3-7-09
Prior to the close of Friday's market, nothing special happened again this week for the Stem Cell stocks. A few were flat but the majority remained down. However, after weeks of seemingly getting pounded, there finally appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Most names in the sector exploded 3/6/09 after hours in upwards of 80% on news that President Obama will sign an executive order to allow federal funding for human embryonic stem cell research. What's amazing is that these huge moves are taking place with the larger cap stem cell stocks. The unusual spike signifies that the sector has been heavily shorted after such an impressive run up ending the beginning of February. There will be some tremendous money making opportunities to begin the week so hopefully you've been holding tight or you've recently made some timely buys. Forget about trying to figure out which stocks deal directly with human embryonic stem cells. Every company in the sector will get lumped together (see the last stem cell and infrastructure rallies for proof). Let's take a look at some possible game plans Monday:
Game plan 1 - As far as the large cap stem cell stocks, there will probably be significant selling in Monday's pre-market and the first 30 minutes to an hour of trading. As a result, I'd be very surprised if a stock like ASTM actually opens with the 82% gain currently showing after hours. If you already have a position in the stock, you can either sell with the herd or hang tight and hope for a full day or multi-day run. If the market as a whole is in rally mode, it may be worth holding on. However, be careful because the market could be similar to last Friday's with a first hour suckers rally to start the session. If you decide to chase (although I wouldn't recommend it with the larger caps) I'd stick with GERN, STEM, ASTM, CYTX, and KOOL. Look to start a position after a probable MM shakeout around 10AM.
Game plan 2 - If the gains with the large cap stocks are as significant as the after hours forecast, the small caps should really explode. If you are looking to buy into the sector early Monday, the small caps may be the safest bet. Penny stock chasers will pump the likes of CBAI.OB, MCET.OB, ACTC.PK, etc. like there is no tomorrow. The sentiment of every penny stock forum and message board I've seen this weekend has been to "load the boat" with stem cell stocks. All of these stocks should do well and I'd load up first thing in the morning. Typically, it's better to buy penny stocks at 9:30AM because the gap ups are not as extreme due to the fact that there is very little pre-market activity to significantly drive up the price. I would particularly be on the lookout for stem cell stock low floaters MCET.OB, LSTM.OB (despite the reservations people have if it is really still a stem cell company) and PSTI purely based on recent history. The super run MCET.OB had a little over a month ago is still fresh in the minds of many. I'd expect expect close to a repeat performance.
Game plan 3 - Don't forget 2nd and 3rd day singular stock moves. If you see a particular stock is being left out in Monday's run for no reason, it might be a good idea to initiate a position. It's hard for every stock in a sector to go up significantly on the same day. There are simply too many "pile jumpers" in the stock trading world. PSTI was one the last big moving stocks after GERN's big announcement so keep your eyes open.
Game plan 4 - If you are into the buy and hold theory and want to invest long term, stick with the best of breed names like GERN and STEM. If you want the safest investment with the biggest potential to hit the jackpot, own ACTC.PK.
Top Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Stem Cell Innovations (SCLL.PK) = Up 20% for the week; There has been no news. So, based on the solid volume, it looks like the sellers have just dried up and there is slow steady accumulation.
Worst Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) for Last Week:
- Geron Corp (GERN) = Down -14% for the week; It's obviously being shorted to no end. Shortsqueeze.com says that 22% of the float is being shorted. It's still a good company, but it's being dragged down with the rest of the market. However, the short squeeze will be explosive!
Stem Cell Stocks Current Price and % Up or Down Since the First Rally on 1/23/09
Market Cap Over 50 Million
Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) = Current Price: $1.20; Down -17%
Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) = Current Price: $0.33; Down -36%
BioTime, Inc. (BTIM) = Current Price: $1.70; Down -19%
Celgene Corp (CELG) = Current Price: $41.16; Down -16%
Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) = Current Price: $2.31; Down -28%
Geron Corp (GERN) = Current Price: $3.87; Down -26%
ThermoGenesis (KOOL) = Current Price: $0.40; Down -26%
Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) = Current Price: $18.01; Down -4%
StemCell Inc. (STEM) = Current Price: $1.38; Down -36%
Market Cap Under 50 Million
Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC.PK) = Current Price: $0.11; Down -8%
Athersys Inc. (ATHX) = Current Price: $0.58; Down -15%
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI.OB) = Current Price: $0.10; Down -5%
Bioheart Inc. (BHRT) = Current Price: Current Price: $1.00; Up 27%
Cord Blood America Inc. (CBAI.OB) = Current Price: $0.0089; Up 134%
Cyro-Cell Intl (CCEL.OB) = Current Price: $0.54; Up 17%
Neuralstem (CUR) = Current Price: $0.86; Down -40%
International Stem Cell (ISCO.OB) = CurrentPrice: $0.45; Up 55%
LifeStem International (LSTM.OB) = Current Price: $0.01; Up 156%
MultiCell Technologies (MCET.OB) = Current Price: $0.0099; Up 130%
Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI) = Current Price: $1.08; Up 70%
Stem Cell Therapy Intl (SCII.OB) = Current Price: $0.06; Up 20%
Stem Cell Innovations (SCLL.PK) = Current Price: $0.009; Up 64%
Possible Catalyst for the Week:
- It was announce just before the close of the market on Friday that President Obama will sign an executive order on Monday rolling back restrictions on federal funding of human embryonic stem cells research. GERN is up 40% and STEM is up 67% during Friday's after hours. This is a dead giveaway for a major short squeeze.
-5th Annual Stem Cell Research & Therapeutic Conference - runs March 9-10, 2009; http://www.gtcbio.com/conferenceDetails.aspx?id=145 ; A different stem cell conference last month got a lot of coverage from news and television outlets and the stocks in the sector responded strongly.
- Most people are expecting a bear market rally this coming week. We are very close to a key technical support level in the S&P. Also, there will be a lot of positive speculation leading up to a hearing on 3/12/09 regarding "Mark to Market" Accounting, which could help the financial sector. I'd suspect that many of the beaten down sectors particularly with strong fundamentals like the stem cells stocks will get a significant boost.
- Look for a series of analyst upgrades. They are always late to the party and are just looking to boost the value of their own investments. It could help the stem cell stocks though.
Stem Cell Company Stocks 3/3/09
Geron Corp (GERN), the flagship stock of the stem cell sector had an exceptional day today (8% move up) after a series of down days to numerous to count. Also, there have been a couple of nice press releases so far this week from Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) and Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI), which caused 30% to 40% increases in their stock prices. ASTM had the FDA remove a clinical hold on a heart study involving the use of a mixed-cell product. PSTI announced FDA clearance for the first-in-human placenta-derived stem cell study. However, despite these events, the sector overall has basically been a mixed bag.
More Chartology
As I've stated in previous blogs, the fate of Stem Cells stocks appears to lie with the general market. It looks like the psychological barrier of DOW 7000 proved not to be the mark which leads to the market's technical bounce. Many thought this might be the number because it represented approximately a 50% retracement of the its high. So, if DOW 7000 isn't the number, what is?
First, let me state why I think these technical points are important. With practically all stocks sliding, there has to come a point where the selling stops. Trading has become more and more electronic and now many hedge funds and investment brokerages use computer base quantitative models to initiate buying and selling. As a result, everyone is waiting for that key number in the traditional indexes to hit. Once it does hit, the flood gates will open. Let's look at the chart below of the S&P500:
According to the chart, the next level of support is around 650 from back in 1996. Currently, we sit at 696 so the 650's represents about a 7% decline from where we are now. Because of the stem cell stocks fundamentals, they should rebound strongly with the market. Unfortunately, if this doesn't hold, the next support area is 450. There's an awful lot of pain ahead of us if we reach those levels.
Stem Cell Company Stocks 3/1/09
Stem Cell Stocks 2/23/09 - 2/27/09 the Week That Was
These stocks continued to struggle last week. Initially, the larger caps were slightly safer as far as protecting against huge losses, but even those are making huge turns south. For the first time since we've followed these stocks, all the large caps are below their share price prior to Geron Corp's pivotal announcement on 1/23/09. The past 2 or 3 weeks where there was only one up day a week has become commonplace. I would not be to eager to go out and buy anything in this sector until there is some sort of reversal in the trend. See below for a summary of last week's stem cell stock moves.
Top Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) of the Week:
- International Stem Cell Corp (ISCO) = Up 11% for the week; Up 52% the last two trading days on higher than normal trading volume; Since there was no news associated with late week move, I wouldn't read too much into the price spike. I definitely would not recommend chasing.
Worst Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) of the Week:
- StemCells, Inc (STEM) = Down -20% for the week; Pretty much representative of the entire stem cell sector. Down 4 out of the 5 trading days. Being dragged down with the rest of the market
Market Cap Over 50 Million
Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) = Current Price: $1.11; Down -23%
Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) = Current Price: $0.37; Down -28%
BioTime, Inc. (BTIM) = Current Price: $1.68; Down -20%
Celgene Corp (CELG) = Current Price: $44.73; Down -9%
Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) = Current Price: $2.76; Down -14%
Geron Corp (GERN) = Current Price: $4.60; Down -12%
ThermoGenesis (KOOL) = Current Price: $0.48; Down -12%
Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) = Current Price: $17.90; Down -9%
StemCell Inc. (STEM) = Current Price: $1.56; Down -26%
Market Cap Under 50 Million
Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC.PK) = Current Price: $0.12; Unchanged
Athersys Inc. (ATHX) = Current Price: $0.60; Down -12%
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI.OB) = Current Price: $0.09; Down -10%
Bioheart Inc. (BHRT) = Current Price: Current Price: $1.01; Up 28%
Cord Blood America Inc. (CBAI.OB) = Current Price: $0.0101; Up 166%
Cyro-Cell Intl (CCEL.OB) = Current Price: $0.60; Up 30%
Neuralstem (CUR) = Current Price: $0.94; Down -34%
International Stem Cell (ISCO.OB) = CurrentPrice: $0.50; Up 72%
LifeStem International (LSTM.OB) = Current Price: $0.0088; Up 126%
MultiCell Technologies (MCET.OB) = Current Price: $0.0115; Up 167%
Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI) = Current Price: $1.05; Up 65%
Stem Cell Therapy Intl (SCII.OB) = Current Price: $0.06; Up 20%
Stem Cell Innovations (SCLL.PK) = Current Price: $0.0075; Up 36%
Possible Catalyst for the Week:
- Again there is the potential for President Obama to give an executive order to allow funding for stem cell research; If this happens during this continual downward trend in the market the pop will be short lived
- Much like last week, the catalyst is a technical bounce in the overall market. The DOW is only about 60pts from 7000. If the market tanks heavy and hard (down 250 - 300 pts) on Monday to about 6800, I would expect a hard intra-day reversal. If you are quick with the trigger, you can make a lot of money.
These stocks continued to struggle last week. Initially, the larger caps were slightly safer as far as protecting against huge losses, but even those are making huge turns south. For the first time since we've followed these stocks, all the large caps are below their share price prior to Geron Corp's pivotal announcement on 1/23/09. The past 2 or 3 weeks where there was only one up day a week has become commonplace. I would not be to eager to go out and buy anything in this sector until there is some sort of reversal in the trend. See below for a summary of last week's stem cell stock moves.
Top Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) of the Week:
- International Stem Cell Corp (ISCO) = Up 11% for the week; Up 52% the last two trading days on higher than normal trading volume; Since there was no news associated with late week move, I wouldn't read too much into the price spike. I definitely would not recommend chasing.
Worst Stem Cell Stock Performer(s) of the Week:
- StemCells, Inc (STEM) = Down -20% for the week; Pretty much representative of the entire stem cell sector. Down 4 out of the 5 trading days. Being dragged down with the rest of the market
Market Cap Over 50 Million
Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) = Current Price: $1.11; Down -23%
Aastrom Biosciences (ASTM) = Current Price: $0.37; Down -28%
BioTime, Inc. (BTIM) = Current Price: $1.68; Down -20%
Celgene Corp (CELG) = Current Price: $44.73; Down -9%
Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) = Current Price: $2.76; Down -14%
Geron Corp (GERN) = Current Price: $4.60; Down -12%
ThermoGenesis (KOOL) = Current Price: $0.48; Down -12%
Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) = Current Price: $17.90; Down -9%
StemCell Inc. (STEM) = Current Price: $1.56; Down -26%
Market Cap Under 50 Million
Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC.PK) = Current Price: $0.12; Unchanged
Athersys Inc. (ATHX) = Current Price: $0.60; Down -12%
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI.OB) = Current Price: $0.09; Down -10%
Bioheart Inc. (BHRT) = Current Price: Current Price: $1.01; Up 28%
Cord Blood America Inc. (CBAI.OB) = Current Price: $0.0101; Up 166%
Cyro-Cell Intl (CCEL.OB) = Current Price: $0.60; Up 30%
Neuralstem (CUR) = Current Price: $0.94; Down -34%
International Stem Cell (ISCO.OB) = CurrentPrice: $0.50; Up 72%
LifeStem International (LSTM.OB) = Current Price: $0.0088; Up 126%
MultiCell Technologies (MCET.OB) = Current Price: $0.0115; Up 167%
Pluristem Therapeutics (PSTI) = Current Price: $1.05; Up 65%
Stem Cell Therapy Intl (SCII.OB) = Current Price: $0.06; Up 20%
Stem Cell Innovations (SCLL.PK) = Current Price: $0.0075; Up 36%
Possible Catalyst for the Week:
- Again there is the potential for President Obama to give an executive order to allow funding for stem cell research; If this happens during this continual downward trend in the market the pop will be short lived
- Much like last week, the catalyst is a technical bounce in the overall market. The DOW is only about 60pts from 7000. If the market tanks heavy and hard (down 250 - 300 pts) on Monday to about 6800, I would expect a hard intra-day reversal. If you are quick with the trigger, you can make a lot of money.
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